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August 11, 2013

India: Why Mulayam is getting desperate in UP

The Asian Age. Aug 10, 2013

Desperate father…

Bharat Bhushan

How does one explain the experienced politician in Mulayam Singh Yadav letting the controversy over the actions of a young civil servant escalate to a wholesale alienation of the bureaucracy?

As no incumbent government would want to go into an election with a hostile bureaucracy, it suggests extreme desperation on the part of the Samajwadi Party (SP).

Political interference in the functioning of the bureaucracy in Uttar Pradesh is so great — and the SP alone is not to blame — that out of the 556 Indian Administrative Service posts sanctioned for Uttar Pradesh, less than half — about 228 — are filled. Uttar Pradesh cadre officers who are posted at the Centre or are on inter-state deputation are reluctant to go back to their state. And now there is speculation that even Ms Nagpal and her IAS husband may seek a change of cadre because of the harassment she is being subjected to.

Anyone who knows the style of functioning of the elder Mr Yadav would know that it is he who decides the transfers and postings of IAS and Indian Police Service officers. He is even known to involve himself in the transfer and posting of police inspectors and Station House Officers.

Transfers, postings, rewards and reprimands to civil servants are important signals sent out by political parties to their clients and votebanks that their interests are being protected. It is not farfetched to suggest that the action taken against Ms Nagpal is a demonstration to the Muslim voters of Uttar Pradesh that the SP stands firmly behind them.

The need for mobilising Muslim voters is urgent as the political balance which existed in the state during the Assembly elections no longer holds. Then the two dominant players were the SP and the incumbent Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), with core caste-based votebanks. These were topped up by wooing Muslim and upper-caste voters, both of whom have carved out a strategic niche for themselves by supporting one or the other caste formation.

The two national parties, the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party were insignificant players in the state elections but are the main contenders in the upcoming national parliamentary election. With the entry of Narendra Modi, the pro-Hindutva vote has begun to consolidate in favour of the BJP in north India, including Uttar Pradesh. The question that bothers the other political parties is: which way will the Muslim vote go?

In every constituency where it matters, the Muslim vote will go to the candidate who is best placed to defeat the BJP candidate; at this juncture it could go to any of the non-Hindutva parties — the Congress, the BSP or the SP. There’s speculation that the Congress might be the larger gainer, as voters believe that the other two parties are unlikely to form the government at the Centre, and will use their parliamentary numbers for personal ends, such as slowing the investigation against them for amassing disproportionate assets or dodging income tax.

If Mr Yadav sees the 2014 general election as his last chance to get the top job in New Delhi, he will have to win more than 40 of the 80 parliamentary seats in Uttar Pradesh. Uttar Pradesh’s Muslims form 18.5 per cent of its population and have a deciding influence in 36 Lok Sabha constituencies. The Durga Shakti Nagpal case could be a desperate gamble by the SP to attract the Muslim vote.

Muslim anger against the SP is palpable at the moment. Chief minister Akhilesh Yadav admitted in the state Assembly that in the 10 months since he took over in March 2012 there have been 27 communal riots. Not a single IAS or IPS officer was suspended for allowing the disturbance of communal harmony — a charge against Ms Nagpal.

One wonders whether the Muslims of Uttar Pradesh will be convinced by the Yadav clan “showcasing” their protection of an illegally constructed mosque wall when it has done less to protect their lives or icons of their community, like DSP Zia-ul-Haq. The young and honest Muslim deputy superintendent of police was murdered in broad day light allegedly by the henchmen of SP minister Raja Bhaiyya aka Raghuraj Pratap Singh in his constituency of Kunda. SP leaders spared no effort to see that Raja Bhaiyya was absolved of any personal involvement.

The upper caste vote is also on top of the mind of SP and BSP leaders as tactical voting by this section of voters has often decided their fortunes in the Assembly elections. The BSP was organising Brahmin conferences till early June when they were banned by the high court. But Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav will find it harder to pursue upper caste voters.

OBC youth in the state are upset with the government’s implementation of the OBC reserved quota in the State Public Service Commission. They opposed the inclusion of those OBC candidates who had qualified in the general category within the 27 per cent OBC quota. This would, in effect convert the 50 per cent general seats remaining after SC/ST and OBC reservation into an upper-caste quota. The controversy erupted when candidates were called for the final interview for the PSC examination given in 2011. The government ordered the commission to modify its selection process under pressure from OBC candidates.

However, it was decided to stall this order after massive counter-agitation by upper caste students at Allahabad University, and pressure from the SP’s upper caste leaders like Reoti Raman Singh and Ranjana Bajpai.

The Akhilesh Yadav government gave an affidavit regarding this to the Allahabad high court. What’s being seen as appeasement of upper caste youth might cost the party dearly.

The hike in rural electricity tariffs and deterioration in the law and order situation further add to the electoral discomfiture of the SP. Perhaps sensing public anger, the SP government has lauded the performance of its government in full-page advertisements in the press.

Unfortunately, apart from contributing to the revenues of an ailing newspaper industry, they only demonstrate how desperate times are for Mr Mulyam Singh Yadav.



The writer is a journalist based in New Delhi